As GameStop plunges, Volkswagen's 2008 short squeeze gives an idea of how painful it will get

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  • In October 2008, Volkswagen saw its Frankfurt, Germany-listed shares more than quadruple in two days, briefly becoming the biggest company in the world.
  • After Volkswagen’s peak on Oct. 28, 2008, the shares fell 58% in four days, and a month later the stock was down 70% from its top, giving back most of the squeeze.
  • “The classic pattern of past squeezes include a quick rise, and a quick fall,” said Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest. “When the squeeze is done, everybody tries to sell at the same time.”

Volkswagen often comes to mind when investors try to find a short squeeze comparable to GameStop’s jaw-dropping spike last week.

In October 2008, the German carmaker saw its Frankfurt-listed shares more than quadruple in two days, briefly becoming the biggest company in the world.

The rally was initially triggered by a surprise announcement that Porsche had boosted its VW stake, which sent a slew of short selling hedge funds rushing for the exit.

Last week, shares of the brick-and-mortar video game retailer soared 400% in wild trading as a band of retail traders, who coordinated on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum, drove the stock price up by taking advantage of an elevated level of short interest in the name.

Now that the GameStop mania has started to unwind, will the stock follow Volkswagen’s path on the way down?

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After Volkswagen’s peak on Oct. 28, 2008, the shares fell 58% in four days, and a month later the stock was down 70% from its top, giving back most of the squeeze, according to FactSet.

So far for GameStop, the stock tumbled 30.8% to $225 apiece Monday from Friday’s close of $325. The shares dropped another 60% Tuesday, bringing their two-day losses to more than 70%.

“The classic pattern of past squeezes include a quick rise, and a quick fall,” said Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist at Ally Invest. “Squeezed stocks can move violently for no reason, and the tide can turn quickly. And when the squeeze is done, everybody tries to sell at the same time.”

Short interest in GameStop as a percentage of shares available for trading dropped to about 53% from more than 110% a week ago, according to data from S3 Partners. So there are fewer short bets to cover to keep fueling the squeeze. Trading volume also fell sharply on Monday as the retail momentum slowed down.

“Both fundamental and momentum short sellers have found opportunities and price exit points to trim their positions in the face of these losses as the GME short squeeze is in full force,” said Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of predictive analytics at S3.

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